Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail

This is an extraordinary book. Although it’s written by an economist, it is anything but boring. The author does an outstanding job of examining multiple empires across hundreds of years. He analyzes the rise and fall of each empire by segmenting their respective histories into different cycles. He then identifies the various cycles that each empire goes through, from its initial rise to its eventually fall. Each cycle is sub divided into key indicators such as military strength, budget deficits, wealth gaps, education, etc. In the end, the author looks at the United States using this same cyclical methodology. Mr. Dalio’s arguments and analysis are sound and make good sense. His interpretation and description of various historical events, especially those pertaining to the British and Dutch empires, are right on target. Throughout the book, he is consistent in the application of his analytic model. This is noteworthy as I felt his analysis of China to be slightly flawed. The author appears to have omitted certain elements of modern-day China; most notably is the pending population time bomb caused by their previous one child policy. China’s population is now shrinking. In addition, and unlike America, the Chinese seem culturally incapable of using immigration to solve their problem. This opposing view of China, however, does not detract from the author’s overall analysis. He is consistent in his analysis and cites other data which support counter arguments. Bottom line, this book was far more interesting than I anticipated. Even though the author’s analysis is complex, the book is well written and easy to understand. The narrative is both captivating and entertaining. Overall, this is just a great book.

I’m grateful Ray Dalio has shared his world view and his access to leading thinkers and valuable sources of data, to make me more aware and better prepared for what’s coming. I am also friends with Ray, and I trust him. This book offers at least two major contributions. First, the synthesis and integration of economic, social, and geopolitical history that presents a holistic view of how countries rise and fall. Leveraging his relationships with leading thinkers and historians, Ray gives us a way to understand the major forces, cycles, and paradigm shifts that can dramatically change the world around us. You would have to read dozens of well-chosen books to gain such an understanding, and you still may not have a comprehensive theory. Second, the quantification of each major nation’s economic, cultural, and geopolitical health. With the support of Bridgewater’s multi-hundred-million-dollar research budget and team, Ray presents the key determinants of a country’s strengths and weaknesses through time, and relative to other countries. Seeing the most important long-term trends in charts provide useful perspectives that are unavailable elsewhere. Here are some of my biggest take-aways. Disorderly conflict is the pre-cursor to destructive conflict that is likely to be devastating for all of us. Both the winners and the losers of destructive actions are worse off relative to compromise, mutual understanding, and respect. As an American, I should not take for granted that I live in the most powerful country that has seen one of the longest periods of peace, economic growth, and innovation in global history. It’s not the norm, and if we aren’t careful, things could get a lot worse. Invest in innovation. Both as an investor and as a citizen, innovation has been a powerful force for improving lives and driving economic growth. We are likely in for a period of high inflation. The easiest way for the government to deal with high levels of debt is by printing money, using stimulus to spur economic growth, and keeping interest rates lower than nominal GDP growth. That is, to inflate their way out of debt. As an investor, he suggests avoiding long term holdings of cash and bonds. Instead, he recommends diversifying with assets that can do well in an inflationary environment, like highly dependable cash generating stocks, some gold (possibly a little cryptocurrency), and other scarce inflation-protected assets. This book is a major contribution. I strongly recommend reading or listening to it. If you don’t have the time, at least read the first few pages of the introduction, the first chapter “The Big Cycle in a Tiny Nutshell”, chapter 8 "The Last 500 Years in a Tiny Nutshell", and the final chapter called “The Future”. I hope you found this helpful.

This is an excellent and highly insightful book. Ray Dalio explains long-term cycles and national trends in a clear and compelling way, and many of the frameworks are very eye-opening. I only wish there were more guidance on how individuals can apply these principles in their own lives. Still, it’s a great read and well worth the time.

The future is full of uncertainty. But thanks history, and by understanding how the world works, we can learn how to be ready for whatever comes ahead. That's what I learned from reading this book by Ray Dalio. 5 stars

A must-read to understand today’s economy and geopolitics. With clear language, Dalio explains historical patterns and future trends in an accessible and profound way.

Interesting, learned quite a bit. But the repetitions are incredibly annoying- the whole book could have told in less than halve the pages. In addition the book is also a lot about Ray (I do this, I did that), which could be left out. Remarks like: you may want to read previous section again, slowly. Effing patronizing!

For everybody who would like to learn in which circular structure empires and stock markets rise and fail, this book is the best decision to buy. Honestly. The immense focus on detail offers a guideline with which you can easily work to challenge your own investing ideas. No book has shaped my thinking about financial crises and central banks more than this book! This should be standard literature for every student! Part I is the best part one can wish for. It's about how the machine works. Part II concentrates on the history of the past empires - how they rose, what they experienced on the top and which reasons made them fail Part III is a forecast for future development of the biggest key countries.

One of the best books ever written. It details the historical circumstances surrounding the fall of a reserve currency. The conventional view is that once the US Dollar's hegemony ends so too will the world. Yet, the fall of currencies is something that has occurred hundreds of times in the past. If you're interested in this specific question "What comes after the US Dollar? "- you will enjoy this book.

Çok kaliteli ofset baskı. Amazon'un kullandığı Kolay Gelsin kargo firması da ciddi, dakik, çok iyi.